Blogging from the ICWSM in Boulder

Talk about being in heaven!

Currently at the ICWSM in Boulder.  Amazing speakers.  Will follow up with updates as it progresses.

For whom the bell tolls: microsoft, dell, and oracle

Om had an interesting article today, I’m sure everybody and their brother read it (I think it was sent out by Onlinemedia, but I don’t remember).

He explored the evolving business implications to potentially disrupting web-based applications ala Writely, Gmail, and smaller/faster hardware to enable those apps (e.g. Nokia’s 770 or the Q) vs. a laptop. What was more interesting was a notion he hinted at but did not explore: web-based databases that offer available anywhere access to lots of customized data.

As the online world allows for easier micro-chunking of content, and ajax allows for simplified customization, where will all of these OS independent (or not as dependent) applications store all that personalized data? Yes Google can do it (what happened to Base), doesn’t hurt to soak up the storage costs when your market cap is around $150 billion, but what about security, not to mention those pesky ads for business customers?

Enter the online db companies.  I’ve been looking at Trackvia and Dabble DB.  Both companies have production offerings with referenceable clients.    Although they are not free, the price they’re charging wont’ bust the bank for SMB or individuals.  As I peruse their sites a thought strikes me.  Although they’ve made their products fairly consumer friendly (Dabble’s appears to be more consumer friendly), the “average” consumer wouldn’t know how to use either one.  Whereas email and Word are used by anyone that’s worked for a business, a db is not.  At least not at face value.
A way to solve this is by standarizing several modules (sounds like Salesforce, no?) that are based on solving problems or are solutions that revolve around a usage.  By not focusing on what it is ( a database) but rather on what it can do (say, organize and report on marketing spending/campaigns) and the ease and ubiquity to access it (the web), these could set the stage to hasten the demise of Vista, and 11g.   Latitude will be around the corner if I don’t need to schlep my data with me.

Ok, that may be a bit premature.  But I’m watching companies like Trackvia and DabbleDB to see how they evolve their offerings and soon start to re-position their offering more along solution lines.  Just like Basecamp.

The Real Winner of 2.0 and the Significance

The ultimate winner is…

You.

The consumer.

The customer. And in the near future, the client.

The individual is the real winner because the lock step belief for pre-wrapped, push distribution, mindset is dying. And what has been dubbed web 2.0 expedited that demise.

I read today that Tower Record is done. They were never able to modify their business model from the brick and mortar retail business. It seems a shame in some ways, the real executioner for Tower was not the downloadable MP3, but the Recording industries steadfast persistence on business as usual. Tower filled the gap as middleman: distribution and to some degree the marketing . Rather than letting Tower compile and burn customized CDs, consumers were given two choices: buy the $18 CD for the two songs you heard (the broadcast industry will be the subject of a future post) and liked, or don’t.

Although this trend started in creative content creating/distribution, marketers shouldn’t be fooled into thinking that this is also where the trend will stop. Consuming creative/thought driven content is largely done for recreational purposes. The voice of the consumer has spoken by not spending on traditional consumptions mediums for music and some forms of information (see the BusinessWeek write up in the same article, linked above). Letting me sample a song, buy, and download it right away allows me to also buy impulsively as well as purposely. If you’re in the B2C space, look for similar opportunities. BTW, if you don’t, your competitor will.

What (really) Is a Blog?

Dated news alert: the blogosphere is now comprised of 50 million blogs according to uber-counter, David Sifry of Technorati.

Here’s a question. Is the real news the absolute number or what is considered a blog?

Kevin Burton challenges the number and indirectly the method of determining what actually is a blog. Kevin brings up excellent points and should be congratulated for cogently challenging the Technorati blogosphere size update.

To me, the real debate should not focus on the actual number of blogs that comprise the blogosphere, but the number of real blogs.

This statement should resonate clearly with all marketers. How many times have we been pitched on estimated market size, page views, impressions, reach, etc… To me the only absolute numbers I care about are in context to my target segment or segments. Marketing budgets are finite, our target segments are even more finite.

Example: Due to environmental quality concerns, most new homes in the Denver metro area are built with gas burning fireplaces instead of traditional wood burning fireplaces. So here’s the example: if I sell firewood for a living, would I spend my marketing and time resources on new (gas fireplace) developments or the older (wood burning fireplace) houses?

That’s how Technorati should count blogs. Put a line in the sand, declare what truly constitutes a blog vs a splog vs and get ready for the inevitable debate that will follow.

When Wining a World Series Is Not a Priority

I have always been a HUGE fan of the Red Sox. Living in Colorado, I don't get to see many games at Fenway anymore like I did growing up. Needless to say, when they broke the 86 year "curse", I was beside myself with joy. In fact, during the last game of the series, when things looked good (always a relative term for a die hard Red Sox fan) I woke up my kids to witness the event.

My daughter fell back asleep. Didn't care unless the Wiggles were in attendance.

My son, who was too young to walk, was barely awake as I held him in front of the tv to watch the last 3 outs of the game. Given the Red Sox history, this may be the only time he would see them win the World Series in his lifetime! And for the record, I did shed a few tears that night as I danced around the house.  

This morning I ran through my daily ritual of checking my favorite Red Sox blogs: soxaholix, boston dirt dogs, over the monster, etc… I saw a couple of references to this story by Dan Shaughnessy. The synopsis: the Red Sox haven't "gotten around" to re-signing boy wonder Theo Epstein as GM.

For those who have interests outside of baseball, Epstein was responsible for bringing a new approach to locating and retaining talent to the Red Sox. He based decisions primarily on player statistics. Without going into detail, he analyzed many different stats, and variations of stats to determine which combination metrics would best indicate the performance and value of a player. Not an easy accomplishment for a team steeped in traditional baseball management.

So I was shocked to read that after his much publicized departure and renaissance to the team, the Red Sox owner and CEO haven't gotten around to formally signing him up. Hmm, you don't want to sign the guy who brought together the right players and won baseball's top prize for the first time in over three generations.

Just watch, Theo will get fed up and go to the Yankees.

Engagement: The New Black

Yesterday I wrote an email to Jim Meskaukas, the President of the online division of Omnicom. The email was in response to an article he wrote in Media magazine, which is one of the trade publications put out by Media Post. (On a side note, you think a site that caters to media would be better organized and easier to navigate. But nooooooo!).

Jim's article focused on Engagement as a potential replacement for frequency. He was on the right track but his article missed a critical point: Engagement must take into account the actual actions of the target audience as well as how often, and in what context, the target audience engages with your brand/product.

Here's what I actually wrote to Jim:

Greetings Jim,

Just read your article on Engagement. Great points made.

One quick question to push the concept of engagement even further:

Does engagement tacitly demand that some action must result from the engagement?

I would argue yes it does, and it can be measured, within certain mediums.

Since you head up the online media group at Omnicom, I don’t need to pontificate about the web and measurability.

My theory on engagement can be broken down into 5 macro perspectives:

1. Did you reach your target audience (t.a.)?
2. Did your message resonate with that t.a.?
3. Is your t.a. repeating, and in a sense “forwarding”, the message?
4. How many times is the message being repeated and by whom?
5. What actions come about because of number 4?

I design products for understanding and tracking the blogosphere. We’ve developed a measurement of engagement by looking at two components:

1. Are new or existing bloggers talking about you (brand/product/message)
2. If so, how many times, and with what sentiment?

Of course the next logical step (predictability) would be, what action did those engaged (in this case) bloggers take? That’s a product we’re developing and will have ready in the near future.

Again, great article.

Regards,

Michael

 

I haven't heard back from Jim, but will follow up when I do.

Early To Market?

Everybody already knows Google is building their own wifi network. They probably won't be alone. Soon, others will have the opportunity to bid on pieces of the wireless spectrum.

Whether or not they go at it alone, or form a loose consortium (which they should), the opportunity is not the actual bandwidth/transport, it is what rides on top. Obvious, yes. But what could they put on top to better serve users?

Google/Amazon/Ebay/Microsoft: go ahead, borrow this idea. Tie in the ability to make voip calls on my mobile device, with search (must be local as well) and tie in a social media that allows me to see what other people near by think, on the same network. And, if you want to get creative, build in the ability to view the consolidated/aggregated opinions on topics of interest to me. A "no brainer", so add this as well.
If wifi is the connector, how do you as a business, keep users securely connected to your network, and, be able to use their online behavior to better serve up revenue generating ads? Enter a company like OTO Software. OTO is a Boulder/Austin based company. "Rumor" has it they may be in the market for funding to blow this out big time. In my spare time, I brain storm with the COO about ways to increase revenue and target on specific markets. This is an idea I ran by him not so long ago. OTO faces the classic connundrum: there is a huge demand for their product, but, the market is not aware of the "pain"; thus, while the market upside is huge, it will take either time, or a paradigm shifting event, to awaken demand for their product.

Clearly they are not going to fund the education and creation of demand in the marketplace. The should let their competitors do that. What to do if the market is inmature? Include your product as part of a widget in a well known product/application. Focus on the revenue retention/savings/generation you can create for someone else. Sales cycles will be longer, but you certainly don't need to burn valuable cash trying to educate a nascent marketplace.
One day someone like Qwest will wake up and realize that OTO's product could dramatically reduce customer churn and, save lots of money on customer service calls (usually during wireless DSL gateway installs). Heaven forbid they would actually like to improve the customer service and hold on to the only product still generating them lots of money.

Really, How Important Are Blogs?

Our CFO and I were discussing the importance of blogs. More specifically, will blogs continue to grow in number and prominence? Indirectly, how important are blogs as an evolving medium of opinion and information dissemination?

Of course from a job preservation perspective, I should have jumped in and defended the growing importance and acceptance of blogs as a way to convey information and act as a more spontaneous, less packaged, form of opinion and insight. But I didn't jump. I didn't want to just fire off the list of reasons why blogs are important. Instead, I slept on it. (And of course, I read some of my favorite blogs). Paul Miller has a good rebuttal to a FT piece done a few weeks ago with good articulation and rational.

I've been thinking about it and have arrived at this conclusion: we are only beginning to understand the importance of blogs. Blogs are representational of a larger evolving information dissemination system. It just so happens that the low barriers to entry, ubiquity in opinion (everyone has them), and the willingness to opine make blogs a great source of insight. And that word, insight, and the sharing of insight, is the key to the continued prominence of blogs specifically, but social media as a whole.

The bloggers over at USV hit it right on today:"The continued growth of blogs and of micro-chunked media is driven by the attention economics of a society populated, increasingly, by time starved, curious people looking for efficient ways to learn more about subjects they already think about every day".

So as long as there are time starved, curious people, we will expect to see the continued evolution and importance of consumer generated/social media.

Warning! This Could be Messy…Part 2: Do Bloggers Lie?

Our attitudes, usage, and behavior datebase is built (see previous post). Will it really be useful? Probably, assuming that the contents of the database are truly representative of bloggers thoughts. So how do we know that bloggers tell the "truth"?

Truth, for simplicity sake, I'll define as a form of accord with facts.

Without delving into the nuances of the Performative Theory of Truth, I shall borrow this from Wikipedia: "to say a statement is true is not to make a statement about a statement, but rather to perform the act of agreeing with, accepting, or endorsing a statement". So, I interpret this to mean, if I agree with (or accept) a statement as truthful, regardless of who makes it, I'm endorsing that statement as being the truth. In other words, I buy-in hook, line, and sinker predicated upon agreement. If you disagree, feel free to correct me.

Pedantic you think (you're right!), how does this answer the question about bloggers and the truth?

In absolute terms, it does not. Of course we're speaking of human beings so we really can't stick to absolutes. Just like you would never assume that in a survey, or in a focus group, you always get the truth. Margin of error attempts to compensate, but you never really know what someone really thinks. You only know what they say they think when you ask them a direct question. Thus the beauty of blogs. People's unsolicited, unfiltered, and direct thoughts.

Read this article in today's WSJ about the power of the Web and how it is "obvious and undeniable". Daniel Henninger muses about the proliferation of thoughts written and spread via blogs. Supporting quote:

"But what if the most potent social effect to spread outward from the Internet turns out to be disinhibition, the breaking down of personal restraints and the endless elevation of oneself the growing disinhibition".

So, people tend to filter less, and spout more, of their personal thoughts on almost any subject. We do get the free assoication and collection of insights that center around peoples thinking. Ultimatley, the only person they might really lie to is themselves.

Here's what I would do. Aggregate the information, look for and connect the dots, test the theory, predict the results. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Warning! This Could be Messy…Part 1

I am one of those people that have flashes of ideas that pop into my head pretty frequently. The problem is (at least one of the problems) that my analysis of those ideas gets interrupted from the flash of new ideas. The end result, lots of partial thinking on a wide range of disparate ideas…

But, there is one idea that has stuck in my head for a long time. Building a database of psychographic profiles and directly tie it to consumer behavior.

This is clearly not an original thought. Many industries have done this. There are many providers of both end to end views of this data, as well as the fragments that make up this data. The trick, and the value, are to put the fragments together and tell a story. Then, make the story repeatable and predictable. (e.g. DoubleClick and Abacus)
So, why not do this to the blogosphere? Example: If you go to Brad Feld's blog (which you should, Brad writes very well, often, is interesting, educational, and entertaining), you will see a huge lists of categories he writes on. I randomly selected one post. Look at the details he describes. Just from the first paragraph alone I learn:

"I spent a delightful few days in Aspen with Amy, my uncle Charlie, and his wife Cindy. My first computer experience was at a Frito-Lay office in Dallas when I was 10 where Charlie sat me down in front of a terminal with a green screen, fired up an APL interpreter, gave me a big book called APL: A Programming Language, and then left me alone for the next five hours. Over the years Charlie and I have worked together on a variety of things, most recently when I was a major investor in his previous company, The Feld Group (acquired by EDS in January 2004). "

Cool! Now, theoretically analyze all his posts and you'll get a pretty good understanding of who he is. Or at least who he says he is.

Now do that for the entire blogosphere. Think of the marketing possibilities: usage and attitude studies directly tied into behavior, past, present, and intended future (potentially).

Ok, you're thinking, how reliable are blogs? In other words, are people telling the "truth"?

(I mull that in part 2)