Warning! This Could be Messy…Part 2: Do Bloggers Lie?

Our attitudes, usage, and behavior datebase is built (see previous post). Will it really be useful? Probably, assuming that the contents of the database are truly representative of bloggers thoughts. So how do we know that bloggers tell the "truth"?

Truth, for simplicity sake, I'll define as a form of accord with facts.

Without delving into the nuances of the Performative Theory of Truth, I shall borrow this from Wikipedia: "to say a statement is true is not to make a statement about a statement, but rather to perform the act of agreeing with, accepting, or endorsing a statement". So, I interpret this to mean, if I agree with (or accept) a statement as truthful, regardless of who makes it, I'm endorsing that statement as being the truth. In other words, I buy-in hook, line, and sinker predicated upon agreement. If you disagree, feel free to correct me.

Pedantic you think (you're right!), how does this answer the question about bloggers and the truth?

In absolute terms, it does not. Of course we're speaking of human beings so we really can't stick to absolutes. Just like you would never assume that in a survey, or in a focus group, you always get the truth. Margin of error attempts to compensate, but you never really know what someone really thinks. You only know what they say they think when you ask them a direct question. Thus the beauty of blogs. People's unsolicited, unfiltered, and direct thoughts.

Read this article in today's WSJ about the power of the Web and how it is "obvious and undeniable". Daniel Henninger muses about the proliferation of thoughts written and spread via blogs. Supporting quote:

"But what if the most potent social effect to spread outward from the Internet turns out to be disinhibition, the breaking down of personal restraints and the endless elevation of oneself the growing disinhibition".

So, people tend to filter less, and spout more, of their personal thoughts on almost any subject. We do get the free assoication and collection of insights that center around peoples thinking. Ultimatley, the only person they might really lie to is themselves.

Here's what I would do. Aggregate the information, look for and connect the dots, test the theory, predict the results. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Warning! This Could be Messy…Part 1

I am one of those people that have flashes of ideas that pop into my head pretty frequently. The problem is (at least one of the problems) that my analysis of those ideas gets interrupted from the flash of new ideas. The end result, lots of partial thinking on a wide range of disparate ideas…

But, there is one idea that has stuck in my head for a long time. Building a database of psychographic profiles and directly tie it to consumer behavior.

This is clearly not an original thought. Many industries have done this. There are many providers of both end to end views of this data, as well as the fragments that make up this data. The trick, and the value, are to put the fragments together and tell a story. Then, make the story repeatable and predictable. (e.g. DoubleClick and Abacus)
So, why not do this to the blogosphere? Example: If you go to Brad Feld's blog (which you should, Brad writes very well, often, is interesting, educational, and entertaining), you will see a huge lists of categories he writes on. I randomly selected one post. Look at the details he describes. Just from the first paragraph alone I learn:

"I spent a delightful few days in Aspen with Amy, my uncle Charlie, and his wife Cindy. My first computer experience was at a Frito-Lay office in Dallas when I was 10 where Charlie sat me down in front of a terminal with a green screen, fired up an APL interpreter, gave me a big book called APL: A Programming Language, and then left me alone for the next five hours. Over the years Charlie and I have worked together on a variety of things, most recently when I was a major investor in his previous company, The Feld Group (acquired by EDS in January 2004). "

Cool! Now, theoretically analyze all his posts and you'll get a pretty good understanding of who he is. Or at least who he says he is.

Now do that for the entire blogosphere. Think of the marketing possibilities: usage and attitude studies directly tied into behavior, past, present, and intended future (potentially).

Ok, you're thinking, how reliable are blogs? In other words, are people telling the "truth"?

(I mull that in part 2)